Model 1: Critical Speed from Two All-Out Efforts
Enter two recent all-out efforts between roughly 2 and 30 minutes (e.g. a 1200m time trial and a 3200m race).Add two times above and your critical speed, anaerobic reserve, and race predictions appear instantly. Or start from an example:
CS = (D2 − D1) ÷ (T2 − T1) · D′ = D1 − CS × T1
(two-point linear distance–time model; predictions use T = (D − D′) ÷ CS)Model 2: Tinman CV Estimate from a 5K
A single recent 5K is enough for a quick critical-velocity estimate — slightly slower than 5K race pace.CV velocity = 5K velocity × 0.9533
(Tinman/Schwartz convention — CV pace = 5K pace ÷ 0.9533)The two-point model is the deterministic physiology standard: CS is the slope of the distance–time line and D′ is its intercept (your anaerobic distance reserve). Use efforts between ~2 and ~30 minutes; predictions outside that window are unreliable. The Tinman estimate is a convenient single-race shortcut — CV reps are typically run at that pace for 3–10 minute repeats.